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SpVgg Greuther Furth vs FC Magdeburg — 2. Bundesliga 2018

SpVgg Greuther Furth
SpVgg Greuther Furth
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
FC Magdeburg
FC Magdeburg
12/9/20232. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 16Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

SpVgg Greuther Furth44%
×Draw23%
FC Magdeburg33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SpVgg Greuther Furth
1.71
FC Magdeburg
1.46

SpVgg Greuther Furth creates 17% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 85 away

creates per match

SpVgg Greuther Furth
1.63
FC Magdeburg
1.51

allows per match

SpVgg Greuther Furth
1.42
FC Magdeburg
1.78

finishing

SpVgg Greuther Furth+0.00on par
FC Magdeburg+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SpVgg Greuther Furth ↓

FC Magdeburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

SpVgg Greuther Furth or draw
67%
SpVgg Greuther Furth or FC Magdeburg
77%
Draw or FC Magdeburg
56%

Winning margin

SpVgg Greuther Furth wins by 2+
23%
FC Magdeburg wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

SpVgg Greuther Furth 1+ goals
82%
SpVgg Greuther Furth 2+ goals
51%
SpVgg Greuther Furth 3+ goals
24%
FC Magdeburg 1+ goals
77%
FC Magdeburg 2+ goals
43%
FC Magdeburg 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

SpVgg Greuther Furth (draw refunded)
57%
FC Magdeburg (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SpVgg Greuther Furth at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.42 · 120 matches

FC Magdeburg away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.78 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SpVgg Greuther Furth attack 1.63 + FC Magdeburg defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.71

FC Magdeburg attack 1.51 + SpVgg Greuther Furth defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

SpVgg Greuther Furth scores more
44%
level
23%
FC Magdeburg scores more
33%

SpVgg Greuther Furth at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "SpVgg Greuther Furth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SpVgg Greuther Furth vs FC Magdeburg

SpVgg Greuther Furth and FC Magdeburg drew 1-1 in 2. Bundesliga on December 9, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer in Fürth.