1. FC Magdeburg 2–2 SpVgg Greuther Fürth

1. FC Magdeburg

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

10/6/2024

2. Bundesliga · Round 8Avnet Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

1. FC Magdeburg42%

×Draw25%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

1. FC MagdeburgExpected goals in this matchSpVgg Greuther Fürth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.33

1. FC Magdeburg

1.53

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

1.33

1. FC Magdeburg creates 15% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 120 away

1.38

creates per match

1.25

1.42

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

1. FC Magdeburg

1.38

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

1.25

allows per match

1. FC Magdeburg

1.42

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

1. FC Magdeburg+0.00on par

SpVgg Greuther Fürth+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1. FC Magdeburg ↓

SpVgg Greuther Fürth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

1. FC Magdeburg or draw

67%

1. FC Magdeburg or SpVgg Greuther Fürth

75%

Draw or SpVgg Greuther Fürth

58%

Winning margin

1. FC Magdeburg wins by 2+

21%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

1. FC Magdeburg 1+ goals

78%

1. FC Magdeburg 2+ goals

45%

1. FC Magdeburg 3+ goals

20%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1+ goals

74%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2+ goals

38%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

1. FC Magdeburg (draw refunded)

56%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1. FC Magdeburg at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.42 · 85 matches

SpVgg Greuther Fürth away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.68 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.38 + SpVgg Greuther Fürth defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.53

SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.25 + 1. FC Magdeburg defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

1. FC Magdeburg scores more

42%

level

25%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth scores more

33%

1. FC Magdeburg at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "1. FC Magdeburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff