FC Magdeburg 0–0 SpVgg Greuther Furth

FC Magdeburg

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

SpVgg Greuther Furth

5/10/2024

2. Bundesliga · Round 33MDCC-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

FC Magdeburg42%

×Draw25%

SpVgg Greuther Furth33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC MagdeburgExpected goals in this matchSpVgg Greuther Furth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.33

FC Magdeburg

1.53

SpVgg Greuther Furth

1.33

FC Magdeburg creates 15% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 120 away

1.38

creates per match

1.25

1.42

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

FC Magdeburg

1.38

SpVgg Greuther Furth

1.25

allows per match

FC Magdeburg

1.42

SpVgg Greuther Furth

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Magdeburg+0.00on par

SpVgg Greuther Furth+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Magdeburg ↓

SpVgg Greuther Furth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

FC Magdeburg or draw

67%

FC Magdeburg or SpVgg Greuther Furth

75%

Draw or SpVgg Greuther Furth

58%

Winning margin

FC Magdeburg wins by 2+

21%

SpVgg Greuther Furth wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

FC Magdeburg 1+ goals

78%

FC Magdeburg 2+ goals

45%

FC Magdeburg 3+ goals

20%

SpVgg Greuther Furth 1+ goals

74%

SpVgg Greuther Furth 2+ goals

38%

SpVgg Greuther Furth 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

FC Magdeburg (draw refunded)

56%

SpVgg Greuther Furth (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Magdeburg at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.42 · 85 matches

SpVgg Greuther Furth away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.68 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Magdeburg attack 1.38 + SpVgg Greuther Furth defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.53

SpVgg Greuther Furth attack 1.25 + FC Magdeburg defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

FC Magdeburg scores more

42%

level

25%

SpVgg Greuther Furth scores more

33%

FC Magdeburg at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "FC Magdeburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff