Springfield ASC 1–3 Chicago Dutch Lions

Springfield ASC

FT

1 – 3

Chicago Dutch Lions

7/7/2022

USL League Two · Round 62Sacred Heart-Griffin High School

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Springfield ASC41%

×Draw20%

Chicago Dutch Lions39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Springfield ASCExpected goals in this matchChicago Dutch Lions

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.20

2.17

Springfield ASC

2.20

Chicago Dutch Lions

2.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 30 away

0.92

creates per match

1.20

3.15

allows per match

3.47

creates per match

Springfield ASC

0.92

Chicago Dutch Lions

1.20

allows per match

Springfield ASC

3.15

Chicago Dutch Lions

3.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Springfield ASC+0.00on par

Chicago Dutch Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes79
No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Springfield ASC ↓

Chicago Dutch Lions →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–27%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

63%37%4.5

43%57%

Double chance

Springfield ASC or draw

61%

Springfield ASC or Chicago Dutch Lions

80%

Draw or Chicago Dutch Lions

59%

Winning margin

Springfield ASC wins by 2+

23%

Chicago Dutch Lions wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Springfield ASC 1+ goals

89%

Springfield ASC 2+ goals

64%

Springfield ASC 3+ goals

37%

Chicago Dutch Lions 1+ goals

89%

Chicago Dutch Lions 2+ goals

64%

Chicago Dutch Lions 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Springfield ASC (draw refunded)

51%

Chicago Dutch Lions (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

72%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Springfield ASC at home — creates 0.92, concedes 3.15 · 13 matches

Chicago Dutch Lions away — creates 1.20, concedes 3.47 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Springfield ASC attack 0.92 + Chicago Dutch Lions defence 3.47 → ÷2 → 2.20

Chicago Dutch Lions attack 1.20 + Springfield ASC defence 3.15 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Springfield ASC scores more

41%

level

20%

Chicago Dutch Lions scores more

39%

Springfield ASC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Springfield ASC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Springfield ASC 1–3 Chicago Dutch Lions

Chicago Dutch Lions beat Springfield ASC 3-1 in USL League Two on July 7, 2022.

The match was played at Sacred Heart-Griffin High School in Springfield, Illinois.

Springfield ASC vs Chicago Dutch Lions — USL League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

USL League Two: Springfield ASC 1–3 Chicago Dutch Lions