Chicago Dutch Lions 1–2 Springfield ASC

Chicago Dutch Lions

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Springfield ASC

7/2/2023

USL League Two · Central Conference - 13Spartan Athletic Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Chicago Dutch Lions36%

×Draw20%

Springfield ASC43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chicago Dutch LionsExpected goals in this matchSpringfield ASC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

2.17

Chicago Dutch Lions

1.98

Springfield ASC

2.17

Springfield ASC creates 10% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 13 away

1.10

creates per match

1.00

3.33

allows per match

2.85

creates per match

Chicago Dutch Lions

1.10

Springfield ASC

1.00

allows per match

Chicago Dutch Lions

3.33

Springfield ASC

2.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chicago Dutch Lions+0.00on par

Springfield ASC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chicago Dutch Lions ↓

Springfield ASC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–27%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Chicago Dutch Lions or draw

57%

Chicago Dutch Lions or Springfield ASC

80%

Draw or Springfield ASC

64%

Winning margin

Chicago Dutch Lions wins by 2+

19%

Springfield ASC wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Chicago Dutch Lions 1+ goals

86%

Chicago Dutch Lions 2+ goals

59%

Chicago Dutch Lions 3+ goals

31%

Springfield ASC 1+ goals

89%

Springfield ASC 2+ goals

64%

Springfield ASC 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Chicago Dutch Lions (draw refunded)

46%

Springfield ASC (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chicago Dutch Lions at home — creates 1.10, concedes 3.33 · 30 matches

Springfield ASC away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chicago Dutch Lions attack 1.10 + Springfield ASC defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 1.98

Springfield ASC attack 1.00 + Chicago Dutch Lions defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Chicago Dutch Lions scores more

36%

level

20%

Springfield ASC scores more

43%

Springfield ASC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Springfield ASC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chicago Dutch Lions vs Springfield ASC

Springfield ASC beat Chicago Dutch Lions 2-1 in USL League Two on July 2, 2023.

The match was played at Spartan Athletic Park in Aurora, Illinois.

Chicago Dutch Lions vs Springfield ASC — USL League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Chicago Dutch Lions vs Springfield ASC