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Sportul Snagov vs Petrolul Ploiesti — Liga II 2018

Sportul Snagov
Sportul Snagov
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Petrolul Ploiesti
Petrolul Ploiesti
12/1/2018Liga IILiga II · Round 20Stadionul Voinţa (Ghermăneşti)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Sportul Snagov28%
×Draw26%
Petrolul Ploiesti46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportul Snagov
1.09
Petrolul Ploiesti
1.48

Petrolul Ploiesti creates 36% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 60 away

creates per match

Sportul Snagov
1.26
Petrolul Ploiesti
1.57

allows per match

Sportul Snagov
1.39
Petrolul Ploiesti
0.93

finishing

Sportul Snagov+0.00on par
Petrolul Ploiesti+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportul Snagov ↓

Petrolul Ploiesti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Sportul Snagov or draw
54%
Sportul Snagov or Petrolul Ploiesti
74%
Draw or Petrolul Ploiesti
72%

Winning margin

Sportul Snagov wins by 2+
11%
Petrolul Ploiesti wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Sportul Snagov 1+ goals
66%
Sportul Snagov 2+ goals
30%
Sportul Snagov 3+ goals
10%
Petrolul Ploiesti 1+ goals
77%
Petrolul Ploiesti 2+ goals
43%
Petrolul Ploiesti 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Sportul Snagov (draw refunded)
38%
Petrolul Ploiesti (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportul Snagov at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.39 · 31 matches

Petrolul Ploiesti away — creates 1.57, concedes 0.93 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportul Snagov attack 1.26 + Petrolul Ploiesti defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.09

Petrolul Ploiesti attack 1.57 + Sportul Snagov defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sportul Snagov scores more
28%
level
26%
Petrolul Ploiesti scores more
46%

Petrolul Ploiesti at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Petrolul Ploiesti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: Sportul Snagov 0–1 Petrolul Ploiesti

Petrolul Ploiesti beat Sportul Snagov 1-0 in Liga II on December 1, 2018.

The match was played at Stadionul Voinţa (Ghermăneşti).