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Petrolul Ploiesti vs Sportul Snagov — Liga II 2018

Petrolul Ploiesti
Petrolul Ploiesti
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Sportul Snagov
Sportul Snagov
9/16/2019Liga IILiga II · Round 7Stadionul Ilie Oană

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Petrolul Ploiesti56%
×Draw24%
Sportul Snagov20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Petrolul Ploiesti
1.70
Sportul Snagov
0.89

Petrolul Ploiesti creates 91% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 30 away

creates per match

Petrolul Ploiesti
1.63
Sportul Snagov
1.10

allows per match

Petrolul Ploiesti
0.67
Sportul Snagov
1.77

finishing

Petrolul Ploiesti+0.00on par
Sportul Snagov+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petrolul Ploiesti ↓

Sportul Snagov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Petrolul Ploiesti or draw
80%
Petrolul Ploiesti or Sportul Snagov
76%
Draw or Sportul Snagov
44%

Winning margin

Petrolul Ploiesti wins by 2+
31%
Sportul Snagov wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Petrolul Ploiesti 1+ goals
82%
Petrolul Ploiesti 2+ goals
51%
Petrolul Ploiesti 3+ goals
24%
Sportul Snagov 1+ goals
59%
Sportul Snagov 2+ goals
22%
Sportul Snagov 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Petrolul Ploiesti (draw refunded)
74%
Sportul Snagov (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petrolul Ploiesti at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.67 · 60 matches

Sportul Snagov away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.77 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petrolul Ploiesti attack 1.63 + Sportul Snagov defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.70

Sportul Snagov attack 1.10 + Petrolul Ploiesti defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Petrolul Ploiesti scores more
56%
level
24%
Sportul Snagov scores more
20%

Petrolul Ploiesti at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Petrolul Ploiesti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: Petrolul Ploiesti 1–1 Sportul Snagov

Petrolul Ploiesti and Sportul Snagov drew 1-1 in Liga II on September 16, 2019.

The match was played at Stadionul Ilie Oană in Ploieşti.