Sportul Snagov vs Juventus Bucuresti

Sportul Snagov

CANC

08:00

Juventus Bucuresti

5/2/2020

Liga II · Round 33

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Sportul Snagov40%

×Draw26%

Juventus Bucuresti34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sportul SnagovExpected goals in this matchJuventus Bucuresti

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.25

Sportul Snagov

1.40

Juventus Bucuresti

1.25

Sportul Snagov creates 12% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 19 away

1.26

creates per match

1.11

1.39

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Sportul Snagov

1.26

Juventus Bucuresti

1.11

allows per match

Sportul Snagov

1.39

Juventus Bucuresti

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sportul Snagov+0.00on par

Juventus Bucuresti+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportul Snagov ↓

Juventus Bucuresti →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Sportul Snagov or draw

66%

Sportul Snagov or Juventus Bucuresti

74%

Draw or Juventus Bucuresti

60%

Winning margin

Sportul Snagov wins by 2+

19%

Juventus Bucuresti wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Sportul Snagov 1+ goals

75%

Sportul Snagov 2+ goals

41%

Sportul Snagov 3+ goals

17%

Juventus Bucuresti 1+ goals

71%

Juventus Bucuresti 2+ goals

36%

Juventus Bucuresti 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Sportul Snagov (draw refunded)

55%

Juventus Bucuresti (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportul Snagov at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.39 · 31 matches

Juventus Bucuresti away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportul Snagov attack 1.26 + Juventus Bucuresti defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.40

Juventus Bucuresti attack 1.11 + Sportul Snagov defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sportul Snagov scores more

40%

level

26%

Juventus Bucuresti scores more

34%

Sportul Snagov at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sportul Snagov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff