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Juventus Bucuresti vs Sportul Snagov — Liga II 2018

Juventus Bucuresti
Juventus Bucuresti
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Sportul Snagov
Sportul Snagov
8/18/2018Liga IILiga II · Round 3Stadionul Juventus (Bucureşti)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Juventus Bucuresti49%
×Draw24%
Sportul Snagov27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juventus Bucuresti
1.75
Sportul Snagov
1.24

Juventus Bucuresti creates 41% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 30 away

creates per match

Juventus Bucuresti
1.74
Sportul Snagov
1.10

allows per match

Juventus Bucuresti
1.37
Sportul Snagov
1.77

finishing

Juventus Bucuresti+0.00on par
Sportul Snagov+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventus Bucuresti ↓

Sportul Snagov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Juventus Bucuresti or draw
73%
Juventus Bucuresti or Sportul Snagov
76%
Draw or Sportul Snagov
51%

Winning margin

Juventus Bucuresti wins by 2+
27%
Sportul Snagov wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Juventus Bucuresti 1+ goals
83%
Juventus Bucuresti 2+ goals
52%
Juventus Bucuresti 3+ goals
25%
Sportul Snagov 1+ goals
71%
Sportul Snagov 2+ goals
35%
Sportul Snagov 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Juventus Bucuresti (draw refunded)
64%
Sportul Snagov (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventus Bucuresti at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

Sportul Snagov away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.77 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventus Bucuresti attack 1.74 + Sportul Snagov defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.75

Sportul Snagov attack 1.10 + Juventus Bucuresti defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Juventus Bucuresti scores more
49%
level
24%
Sportul Snagov scores more
27%

Juventus Bucuresti at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Juventus Bucuresti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Juventus Bucuresti vs Sportul Snagov

Sportul Snagov beat Juventus Bucuresti 3-1 in Liga II on August 18, 2018.

The match was played at Stadionul Juventus (Bucureşti).