Sportul Snagov 1–0 Dacia Unirea Braila

Sportul Snagov

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Dacia Unirea Braila

3/9/2019

Liga II · Round 24Stadionul Voinţa (Ghermăneşti)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Sportul Snagov72%

×Draw16%

Dacia Unirea Braila12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sportul SnagovExpected goals in this matchDacia Unirea Braila

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.73

1.03

Sportul Snagov

2.73

Dacia Unirea Braila

1.03

Sportul Snagov creates 165% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 19 away

1.26

creates per match

0.68

1.39

allows per match

4.21

creates per match

Sportul Snagov

1.26

Dacia Unirea Braila

0.68

allows per match

Sportul Snagov

1.39

Dacia Unirea Braila

4.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sportul Snagov+0.00on par

Dacia Unirea Braila+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportul Snagov ↓

Dacia Unirea Braila →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–17%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Sportul Snagov or draw

88%

Sportul Snagov or Dacia Unirea Braila

84%

Draw or Dacia Unirea Braila

28%

Winning margin

Sportul Snagov wins by 2+

51%

Dacia Unirea Braila wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Sportul Snagov 1+ goals

93%

Sportul Snagov 2+ goals

75%

Sportul Snagov 3+ goals

50%

Dacia Unirea Braila 1+ goals

64%

Dacia Unirea Braila 2+ goals

28%

Dacia Unirea Braila 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Sportul Snagov (draw refunded)

86%

Dacia Unirea Braila (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportul Snagov at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.39 · 31 matches

Dacia Unirea Braila away — creates 0.68, concedes 4.21 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportul Snagov attack 1.26 + Dacia Unirea Braila defence 4.21 → ÷2 → 2.73

Dacia Unirea Braila attack 0.68 + Sportul Snagov defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Sportul Snagov scores more

72%

level

16%

Dacia Unirea Braila scores more

12%

Sportul Snagov at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Sportul Snagov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff