Dacia Unirea Braila 0–3 Sportul Snagov

Dacia Unirea Braila

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Sportul Snagov

9/1/2018

Liga II · Round 5Stadionul Municipal (Brăila)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Dacia Unirea Braila30%

×Draw24%

Sportul Snagov46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dacia Unirea BrailaExpected goals in this matchSportul Snagov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.68

Dacia Unirea Braila

1.33

Sportul Snagov

1.68

Sportul Snagov creates 26% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 30 away

0.89

creates per match

1.10

2.26

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Dacia Unirea Braila

0.89

Sportul Snagov

1.10

allows per match

Dacia Unirea Braila

2.26

Sportul Snagov

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dacia Unirea Braila+0.00on par

Sportul Snagov+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dacia Unirea Braila ↓

Sportul Snagov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Dacia Unirea Braila or draw

54%

Dacia Unirea Braila or Sportul Snagov

76%

Draw or Sportul Snagov

70%

Winning margin

Dacia Unirea Braila wins by 2+

13%

Sportul Snagov wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Dacia Unirea Braila 1+ goals

74%

Dacia Unirea Braila 2+ goals

38%

Dacia Unirea Braila 3+ goals

15%

Sportul Snagov 1+ goals

81%

Sportul Snagov 2+ goals

50%

Sportul Snagov 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Dacia Unirea Braila (draw refunded)

40%

Sportul Snagov (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dacia Unirea Braila at home — creates 0.89, concedes 2.26 · 19 matches

Sportul Snagov away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.77 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dacia Unirea Braila attack 0.89 + Sportul Snagov defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.33

Sportul Snagov attack 1.10 + Dacia Unirea Braila defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Dacia Unirea Braila scores more

30%

level

24%

Sportul Snagov scores more

46%

Sportul Snagov at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sportul Snagov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff