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Sportul Snagov vs Csikszereda — Liga II 2018

Sportul Snagov
Sportul Snagov
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Csikszereda
Csikszereda
9/21/2019Liga IILiga II · Round 8Stadionul Voinţa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Sportul Snagov35%
×Draw27%
Csikszereda37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportul Snagov
1.21
Csikszereda
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 81 away

creates per match

Sportul Snagov
1.26
Csikszereda
1.11

allows per match

Sportul Snagov
1.39
Csikszereda
1.16

finishing

Sportul Snagov+0.00on par
Csikszereda+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportul Snagov ↓

Csikszereda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Sportul Snagov or draw
63%
Sportul Snagov or Csikszereda
73%
Draw or Csikszereda
65%

Winning margin

Sportul Snagov wins by 2+
15%
Csikszereda wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Sportul Snagov 1+ goals
70%
Sportul Snagov 2+ goals
34%
Sportul Snagov 3+ goals
12%
Csikszereda 1+ goals
71%
Csikszereda 2+ goals
36%
Csikszereda 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Sportul Snagov (draw refunded)
49%
Csikszereda (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportul Snagov at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.39 · 31 matches

Csikszereda away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.16 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportul Snagov attack 1.26 + Csikszereda defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.21

Csikszereda attack 1.11 + Sportul Snagov defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Sportul Snagov scores more
35%
level
27%
Csikszereda scores more
37%

Csikszereda at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Csikszereda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: Sportul Snagov 0–1 Csikszereda

Csikszereda beat Sportul Snagov 1-0 in Liga II on September 21, 2019.

The match was played at Stadionul Voinţa in Ghermăneşti.