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Csikszereda vs Sportul Snagov — Liga II 2018

Csikszereda
Csikszereda
CANC
09:00
Sportul Snagov
Sportul Snagov
3/28/2020Liga IILiga II · Round 27

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Csikszereda52%
×Draw24%
Sportul Snagov24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Csikszereda
1.66
Sportul Snagov
1.03

Csikszereda creates 61% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 30 away

creates per match

Csikszereda
1.55
Sportul Snagov
1.10

allows per match

Csikszereda
0.96
Sportul Snagov
1.77

finishing

Csikszereda+0.00on par
Sportul Snagov+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Csikszereda ↓

Sportul Snagov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Csikszereda or draw
76%
Csikszereda or Sportul Snagov
76%
Draw or Sportul Snagov
48%

Winning margin

Csikszereda wins by 2+
28%
Sportul Snagov wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Csikszereda 1+ goals
81%
Csikszereda 2+ goals
49%
Csikszereda 3+ goals
23%
Sportul Snagov 1+ goals
64%
Sportul Snagov 2+ goals
28%
Sportul Snagov 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Csikszereda (draw refunded)
69%
Sportul Snagov (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Csikszereda at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.96 · 82 matches

Sportul Snagov away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.77 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Csikszereda attack 1.55 + Sportul Snagov defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.66

Sportul Snagov attack 1.10 + Csikszereda defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Csikszereda scores more
52%
level
24%
Sportul Snagov scores more
24%

Csikszereda at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Csikszereda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Csikszereda face Sportul Snagov (Liga II)

Liga II returns with Csikszereda hosting Sportul Snagov. Match starts March 28, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.