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Sportul Snagov vs CS Mioveni — Liga II 2018

Sportul Snagov
Sportul Snagov
CANC
08:00
CS Mioveni
CS Mioveni
4/17/2020Liga IILiga II · Round 31

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Sportul Snagov33%
×Draw27%
CS Mioveni40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportul Snagov
1.14
CS Mioveni
1.29

CS Mioveni creates 13% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 70 away

creates per match

Sportul Snagov
1.26
CS Mioveni
1.19

allows per match

Sportul Snagov
1.39
CS Mioveni
1.01

finishing

Sportul Snagov+0.00on par
CS Mioveni+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportul Snagov ↓

CS Mioveni →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Sportul Snagov or draw
60%
Sportul Snagov or CS Mioveni
73%
Draw or CS Mioveni
67%

Winning margin

Sportul Snagov wins by 2+
13%
CS Mioveni wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Sportul Snagov 1+ goals
68%
Sportul Snagov 2+ goals
32%
Sportul Snagov 3+ goals
11%
CS Mioveni 1+ goals
72%
CS Mioveni 2+ goals
37%
CS Mioveni 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Sportul Snagov (draw refunded)
45%
CS Mioveni (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportul Snagov at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.39 · 31 matches

CS Mioveni away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.01 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportul Snagov attack 1.26 + CS Mioveni defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.14

CS Mioveni attack 1.19 + Sportul Snagov defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sportul Snagov scores more
33%
level
27%
CS Mioveni scores more
40%

CS Mioveni at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "CS Mioveni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sportul Snagov vs CS Mioveni — Match Preview

Sportul Snagov face CS Mioveni on April 17, 2020 in this Liga II fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.