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CS Mioveni vs Sportul Snagov — Liga II 2018

CS Mioveni
CS Mioveni
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Sportul Snagov
Sportul Snagov
12/8/2018Liga IILiga II · Round 21Stadionul Orăşenesc (Mioveni)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

CS Mioveni48%
×Draw25%
Sportul Snagov26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CS Mioveni
1.58
Sportul Snagov
1.10

CS Mioveni creates 44% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 30 away

creates per match

CS Mioveni
1.39
Sportul Snagov
1.10

allows per match

CS Mioveni
1.10
Sportul Snagov
1.77

finishing

CS Mioveni+0.00on par
Sportul Snagov+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Mioveni ↓

Sportul Snagov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

CS Mioveni or draw
74%
CS Mioveni or Sportul Snagov
75%
Draw or Sportul Snagov
52%

Winning margin

CS Mioveni wins by 2+
25%
Sportul Snagov wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

CS Mioveni 1+ goals
79%
CS Mioveni 2+ goals
47%
CS Mioveni 3+ goals
21%
Sportul Snagov 1+ goals
67%
Sportul Snagov 2+ goals
30%
Sportul Snagov 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

CS Mioveni (draw refunded)
65%
Sportul Snagov (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Mioveni at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.10 · 72 matches

Sportul Snagov away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.77 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Mioveni attack 1.39 + Sportul Snagov defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.58

Sportul Snagov attack 1.10 + CS Mioveni defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

CS Mioveni scores more
48%
level
25%
Sportul Snagov scores more
26%

CS Mioveni at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "CS Mioveni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CS Mioveni vs Sportul Snagov

Sportul Snagov beat CS Mioveni 4-0 in Liga II on December 8, 2018.

The match was played at Stadionul Orăşenesc (Mioveni).