Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sportul Snagov vs CS Balotesti — Liga II 2018

Sportul Snagov
Sportul Snagov
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
CS Balotesti
CS Balotesti
10/10/2018Liga IILiga II · Round 11Stadionul Voinţa (Ghermăneşti)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Sportul Snagov61%
×Draw21%
CS Balotesti18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportul Snagov
2.10
CS Balotesti
1.06

Sportul Snagov creates 98% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 19 away

creates per match

Sportul Snagov
1.26
CS Balotesti
0.74

allows per match

Sportul Snagov
1.39
CS Balotesti
2.95

finishing

Sportul Snagov+0.00on par
CS Balotesti+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportul Snagov ↓

CS Balotesti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Sportul Snagov or draw
82%
Sportul Snagov or CS Balotesti
79%
Draw or CS Balotesti
39%

Winning margin

Sportul Snagov wins by 2+
38%
CS Balotesti wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Sportul Snagov 1+ goals
88%
Sportul Snagov 2+ goals
62%
Sportul Snagov 3+ goals
35%
CS Balotesti 1+ goals
65%
CS Balotesti 2+ goals
29%
CS Balotesti 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Sportul Snagov (draw refunded)
77%
CS Balotesti (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportul Snagov at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.39 · 31 matches

CS Balotesti away — creates 0.74, concedes 2.95 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportul Snagov attack 1.26 + CS Balotesti defence 2.95 → ÷2 → 2.10

CS Balotesti attack 0.74 + Sportul Snagov defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Sportul Snagov scores more
61%
level
21%
CS Balotesti scores more
18%

Sportul Snagov at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Sportul Snagov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: Sportul Snagov 4–1 CS Balotesti

Sportul Snagov beat CS Balotesti 4-1 in Liga II on October 10, 2018.

The match was played at Stadionul Voinţa (Ghermăneşti).