CS Balotesti 0–0 Sportul Snagov: Result & Stats

CS Balotesti

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sportul Snagov

4/13/2019

Liga II · Round 30Stadionul Baloteşti (Baloteşti)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

CS Balotesti36%

×Draw26%

Sportul Snagov39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CS BalotestiExpected goals in this matchSportul Snagov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.39

CS Balotesti

1.33

Sportul Snagov

1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 30 away

0.89

creates per match

1.10

1.68

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

CS Balotesti

0.89

Sportul Snagov

1.10

allows per match

CS Balotesti

1.68

Sportul Snagov

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CS Balotesti+0.00on par

Sportul Snagov+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Balotesti ↓

Sportul Snagov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

CS Balotesti or draw

61%

CS Balotesti or Sportul Snagov

74%

Draw or Sportul Snagov

64%

Winning margin

CS Balotesti wins by 2+

16%

Sportul Snagov wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

CS Balotesti 1+ goals

74%

CS Balotesti 2+ goals

38%

CS Balotesti 3+ goals

15%

Sportul Snagov 1+ goals

75%

Sportul Snagov 2+ goals

40%

Sportul Snagov 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

CS Balotesti (draw refunded)

48%

Sportul Snagov (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Balotesti at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.68 · 19 matches

Sportul Snagov away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.77 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Balotesti attack 0.89 + Sportul Snagov defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.33

Sportul Snagov attack 1.10 + CS Balotesti defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

CS Balotesti scores more

36%

level

26%

Sportul Snagov scores more

39%

Sportul Snagov at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sportul Snagov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff