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Sportul Snagov vs Aerostar Bacau — Liga II 2018

Sportul Snagov
Sportul Snagov
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Aerostar Bacau
Aerostar Bacau
5/25/2019Liga IILiga II · Round 37Stadionul Voinţa (Ghermăneşti)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Sportul Snagov51%
×Draw24%
Aerostar Bacau26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportul Snagov
1.75
Aerostar Bacau
1.18

Sportul Snagov creates 48% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 31 away

creates per match

Sportul Snagov
1.26
Aerostar Bacau
0.97

allows per match

Sportul Snagov
1.39
Aerostar Bacau
2.23

finishing

Sportul Snagov+0.00on par
Aerostar Bacau+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportul Snagov ↓

Aerostar Bacau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Sportul Snagov or draw
74%
Sportul Snagov or Aerostar Bacau
76%
Draw or Aerostar Bacau
49%

Winning margin

Sportul Snagov wins by 2+
28%
Aerostar Bacau wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sportul Snagov 1+ goals
83%
Sportul Snagov 2+ goals
52%
Sportul Snagov 3+ goals
25%
Aerostar Bacau 1+ goals
69%
Aerostar Bacau 2+ goals
33%
Aerostar Bacau 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Sportul Snagov (draw refunded)
66%
Aerostar Bacau (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportul Snagov at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.39 · 31 matches

Aerostar Bacau away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.23 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportul Snagov attack 1.26 + Aerostar Bacau defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.75

Aerostar Bacau attack 0.97 + Sportul Snagov defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Sportul Snagov scores more
51%
level
24%
Aerostar Bacau scores more
26%

Sportul Snagov at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Sportul Snagov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: Sportul Snagov 1–0 Aerostar Bacau

Sportul Snagov beat Aerostar Bacau 1-0 in Liga II on May 25, 2019.

The match was played at Stadionul Voinţa (Ghermăneşti).