Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Aerostar Bacau vs Sportul Snagov — Liga II 2018

Aerostar Bacau
Aerostar Bacau
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Sportul Snagov
Sportul Snagov
11/24/2018Liga IILiga II · Round 18Stadionul Aerostar (Bacău)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Aerostar Bacau45%
×Draw24%
Sportul Snagov31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aerostar Bacau
1.71
Sportul Snagov
1.38

Aerostar Bacau creates 24% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 30 away

creates per match

Aerostar Bacau
1.66
Sportul Snagov
1.10

allows per match

Aerostar Bacau
1.66
Sportul Snagov
1.77

finishing

Aerostar Bacau+0.00on par
Sportul Snagov+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aerostar Bacau ↓

Sportul Snagov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Aerostar Bacau or draw
69%
Aerostar Bacau or Sportul Snagov
76%
Draw or Sportul Snagov
55%

Winning margin

Aerostar Bacau wins by 2+
24%
Sportul Snagov wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Aerostar Bacau 1+ goals
82%
Aerostar Bacau 2+ goals
51%
Aerostar Bacau 3+ goals
24%
Sportul Snagov 1+ goals
75%
Sportul Snagov 2+ goals
40%
Sportul Snagov 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Aerostar Bacau (draw refunded)
59%
Sportul Snagov (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aerostar Bacau at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.66 · 32 matches

Sportul Snagov away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.77 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aerostar Bacau attack 1.66 + Sportul Snagov defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.71

Sportul Snagov attack 1.10 + Aerostar Bacau defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Aerostar Bacau scores more
45%
level
24%
Sportul Snagov scores more
31%

Aerostar Bacau at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Aerostar Bacau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: Aerostar Bacau 0–2 Sportul Snagov

Sportul Snagov beat Aerostar Bacau 2-0 in Liga II on November 24, 2018.

The match was played at Stadionul Aerostar (Bacău).