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Sportul Snagov vs ACS Sirineasa — Liga II 2018

Sportul Snagov
Sportul Snagov
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
ACS Sirineasa
ACS Sirineasa
11/3/2018Liga IILiga II · Round 15Centrul de Fotbal Buftea Teren 2 (Teren Natural) (Buftea)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Sportul Snagov41%
×Draw26%
ACS Sirineasa33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportul Snagov
1.41
ACS Sirineasa
1.25

Sportul Snagov creates 13% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 84 away

creates per match

Sportul Snagov
1.26
ACS Sirineasa
1.11

allows per match

Sportul Snagov
1.39
ACS Sirineasa
1.56

finishing

Sportul Snagov+0.00on par
ACS Sirineasa+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportul Snagov ↓

ACS Sirineasa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Sportul Snagov or draw
67%
Sportul Snagov or ACS Sirineasa
74%
Draw or ACS Sirineasa
59%

Winning margin

Sportul Snagov wins by 2+
19%
ACS Sirineasa wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Sportul Snagov 1+ goals
76%
Sportul Snagov 2+ goals
41%
Sportul Snagov 3+ goals
17%
ACS Sirineasa 1+ goals
71%
ACS Sirineasa 2+ goals
36%
ACS Sirineasa 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Sportul Snagov (draw refunded)
55%
ACS Sirineasa (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportul Snagov at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.39 · 31 matches

ACS Sirineasa away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.56 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportul Snagov attack 1.26 + ACS Sirineasa defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.41

ACS Sirineasa attack 1.11 + Sportul Snagov defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sportul Snagov scores more
41%
level
26%
ACS Sirineasa scores more
33%

Sportul Snagov at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sportul Snagov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: Sportul Snagov 2–0 ACS Sirineasa

Sportul Snagov beat ACS Sirineasa 2-0 in Liga II on November 3, 2018.

The match was played at Centrul de Fotbal Buftea Teren 2 (Teren Natural) (Buftea).