ACS Sirineasa 3–3 Sportul Snagov: Result & Stats

ACS Sirineasa

FT

3 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Sportul Snagov

5/11/2019

Liga II · Round 34Stadionul Jiul (Petroşani)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

ACS Sirineasa44%

×Draw25%

Sportul Snagov32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ACS SirineasaExpected goals in this matchSportul Snagov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.29

ACS Sirineasa

1.56

Sportul Snagov

1.29

ACS Sirineasa creates 21% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 30 away

1.36

creates per match

1.10

1.47

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

ACS Sirineasa

1.36

Sportul Snagov

1.10

allows per match

ACS Sirineasa

1.47

Sportul Snagov

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ACS Sirineasa+0.00on par

Sportul Snagov+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ACS Sirineasa ↓

Sportul Snagov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

ACS Sirineasa or draw

68%

ACS Sirineasa or Sportul Snagov

75%

Draw or Sportul Snagov

56%

Winning margin

ACS Sirineasa wins by 2+

22%

Sportul Snagov wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

ACS Sirineasa 1+ goals

79%

ACS Sirineasa 2+ goals

46%

ACS Sirineasa 3+ goals

21%

Sportul Snagov 1+ goals

72%

Sportul Snagov 2+ goals

37%

Sportul Snagov 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

ACS Sirineasa (draw refunded)

58%

Sportul Snagov (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ACS Sirineasa at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.47 · 86 matches

Sportul Snagov away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.77 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ACS Sirineasa attack 1.36 + Sportul Snagov defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.56

Sportul Snagov attack 1.10 + ACS Sirineasa defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

ACS Sirineasa scores more

44%

level

25%

Sportul Snagov scores more

32%

ACS Sirineasa at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "ACS Sirineasa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff