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Sportlust '46 vs Blauw Geel — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

Sportlust '46
Sportlust '46
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Blauw Geel
Blauw Geel
2/3/2024Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Girone B - 21Sportpark Cromwijck

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sportlust '4648%
×Draw24%
Blauw Geel28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportlust '46
1.73
Blauw Geel
1.26

Sportlust '46 creates 37% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 100 away

creates per match

Sportlust '46
1.94
Blauw Geel
1.64

allows per match

Sportlust '46
0.88
Blauw Geel
1.53

finishing

Sportlust '46+0.00on par
Blauw Geel+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportlust '46 ↓

Blauw Geel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Sportlust '46 or draw
72%
Sportlust '46 or Blauw Geel
76%
Draw or Blauw Geel
52%

Winning margin

Sportlust '46 wins by 2+
26%
Blauw Geel wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sportlust '46 1+ goals
82%
Sportlust '46 2+ goals
52%
Sportlust '46 3+ goals
25%
Blauw Geel 1+ goals
72%
Blauw Geel 2+ goals
36%
Blauw Geel 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Sportlust '46 (draw refunded)
63%
Blauw Geel (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportlust '46 at home — creates 1.94, concedes 0.88 · 17 matches

Blauw Geel away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.53 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportlust '46 attack 1.94 + Blauw Geel defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.73

Blauw Geel attack 1.64 + Sportlust '46 defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sportlust '46 scores more
48%
level
24%
Blauw Geel scores more
28%

Sportlust '46 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sportlust '46 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sportlust '46 vs Blauw Geel

Sportlust '46 beat Blauw Geel 2-1 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on February 3, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark Cromwijck in Woerden.