Blauw Geel 1–2 Sportlust '46: Result & Stats

Blauw Geel

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Sportlust '46

9/9/2023

Derde Divisie - Sunday · Girone B - 4Prins Willem Alexander Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Blauw Geel44%

×Draw24%

Sportlust '4631%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Blauw GeelExpected goals in this matchSportlust '46

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.31

Blauw Geel

1.60

Sportlust '46

1.31

Blauw Geel creates 22% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 17 away

1.96

creates per match

1.35

1.28

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Blauw Geel

1.96

Sportlust '46

1.35

allows per match

Blauw Geel

1.28

Sportlust '46

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Blauw Geel+0.00on par

Sportlust '46+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blauw Geel ↓

Sportlust '46 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Blauw Geel or draw

69%

Blauw Geel or Sportlust '46

76%

Draw or Sportlust '46

56%

Winning margin

Blauw Geel wins by 2+

22%

Sportlust '46 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Blauw Geel 1+ goals

80%

Blauw Geel 2+ goals

47%

Blauw Geel 3+ goals

22%

Sportlust '46 1+ goals

73%

Sportlust '46 2+ goals

38%

Sportlust '46 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Blauw Geel (draw refunded)

58%

Sportlust '46 (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blauw Geel at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.28 · 98 matches

Sportlust '46 away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blauw Geel attack 1.96 + Sportlust '46 defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.60

Sportlust '46 attack 1.35 + Blauw Geel defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Blauw Geel scores more

44%

level

24%

Sportlust '46 scores more

31%

Blauw Geel at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Blauw Geel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff