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Sportivo Trinidense vs Sportivo Ameliano — Division Profesional - Apertura 2018

Sportivo Trinidense
Sportivo Trinidense
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sportivo Ameliano
Sportivo Ameliano
3/19/2026Division Profesional - AperturaDivision Profesional - Apertura · Apertura - 11Estadio Martin Torres

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Sportivo Trinidense42%
×Draw29%
Sportivo Ameliano29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportivo Trinidense
1.24
Sportivo Ameliano
0.99

Sportivo Trinidense creates 25% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 55 away

creates per match

Sportivo Trinidense
1.36
Sportivo Ameliano
1.04

allows per match

Sportivo Trinidense
0.95
Sportivo Ameliano
1.11

finishing

Sportivo Trinidense+0.00on par
Sportivo Ameliano+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Trinidense ↓

Sportivo Ameliano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Sportivo Trinidense or draw
71%
Sportivo Trinidense or Sportivo Ameliano
71%
Draw or Sportivo Ameliano
58%

Winning margin

Sportivo Trinidense wins by 2+
19%
Sportivo Ameliano wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Sportivo Trinidense 1+ goals
71%
Sportivo Trinidense 2+ goals
35%
Sportivo Trinidense 3+ goals
13%
Sportivo Ameliano 1+ goals
63%
Sportivo Ameliano 2+ goals
26%
Sportivo Ameliano 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Trinidense (draw refunded)
59%
Sportivo Ameliano (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Trinidense at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.95 · 44 matches

Sportivo Ameliano away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.11 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Trinidense attack 1.36 + Sportivo Ameliano defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.24

Sportivo Ameliano attack 1.04 + Sportivo Trinidense defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sportivo Trinidense scores more
42%
level
29%
Sportivo Ameliano scores more
29%

Sportivo Trinidense at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sportivo Trinidense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Profesional - Apertura: Sportivo Trinidense 1–1 Sportivo Ameliano

Sportivo Trinidense and Sportivo Ameliano drew 1-1 in Division Profesional - Apertura on March 19, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Martin Torres in Asuncion.