Sportivo Ameliano 0–1 Sportivo Trinidense

Sportivo Ameliano

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Sportivo Trinidense

4/4/2025

Division Profesional - Apertura · Apertura - 12Estadio Ameliano Villeta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Sportivo Ameliano33%

×Draw26%

Sportivo Trinidense41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sportivo AmelianoExpected goals in this matchSportivo Trinidense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.40

Sportivo Ameliano

1.23

Sportivo Trinidense

1.40

Sportivo Trinidense creates 14% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 44 away

1.13

creates per match

1.39

1.42

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Sportivo Ameliano

1.13

Sportivo Trinidense

1.39

allows per match

Sportivo Ameliano

1.42

Sportivo Trinidense

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sportivo Ameliano+0.00on par

Sportivo Trinidense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Ameliano ↓

Sportivo Trinidense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Sportivo Ameliano or draw

59%

Sportivo Ameliano or Sportivo Trinidense

74%

Draw or Sportivo Trinidense

67%

Winning margin

Sportivo Ameliano wins by 2+

14%

Sportivo Trinidense wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Sportivo Ameliano 1+ goals

71%

Sportivo Ameliano 2+ goals

35%

Sportivo Ameliano 3+ goals

13%

Sportivo Trinidense 1+ goals

75%

Sportivo Trinidense 2+ goals

41%

Sportivo Trinidense 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Ameliano (draw refunded)

45%

Sportivo Trinidense (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Ameliano at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.42 · 55 matches

Sportivo Trinidense away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.34 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Ameliano attack 1.13 + Sportivo Trinidense defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.23

Sportivo Trinidense attack 1.39 + Sportivo Ameliano defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sportivo Ameliano scores more

33%

level

26%

Sportivo Trinidense scores more

41%

Sportivo Trinidense at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sportivo Trinidense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff