Sportivo Trinidense 0–0 Rubio NU: Result & Stats

Sportivo Trinidense

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Rubio NU

4/18/2022

Division Intermedia · Round 3Estadio Martín Torres

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Sportivo Trinidense44%

×Draw28%

Rubio NU28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sportivo TrinidenseExpected goals in this matchRubio NU

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.00

Sportivo Trinidense

1.32

Rubio NU

1.00

Sportivo Trinidense creates 32% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 105 away

1.45

creates per match

1.10

0.90

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Sportivo Trinidense

1.45

Rubio NU

1.10

allows per match

Sportivo Trinidense

0.90

Rubio NU

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sportivo Trinidense+0.00on par

Rubio NU+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Trinidense ↓

Rubio NU →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Sportivo Trinidense or draw

72%

Sportivo Trinidense or Rubio NU

72%

Draw or Rubio NU

56%

Winning margin

Sportivo Trinidense wins by 2+

20%

Rubio NU wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Sportivo Trinidense 1+ goals

73%

Sportivo Trinidense 2+ goals

38%

Sportivo Trinidense 3+ goals

15%

Rubio NU 1+ goals

63%

Rubio NU 2+ goals

26%

Rubio NU 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Trinidense (draw refunded)

61%

Rubio NU (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Trinidense at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.90 · 60 matches

Rubio NU away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.20 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Trinidense attack 1.45 + Rubio NU defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.32

Rubio NU attack 1.10 + Sportivo Trinidense defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sportivo Trinidense scores more

44%

level

28%

Rubio NU scores more

28%

Sportivo Trinidense at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sportivo Trinidense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

84'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff