Rubio NU 0–1 Sportivo Trinidense: Result & Stats

Rubio NU

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Sportivo Trinidense

N. Gauto 90'

2/7/2026

Division Profesional - Apertura · Apertura - 4La Arboleda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Rubio NU31%

×Draw26%

Sportivo Trinidense43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rubio NUExpected goals in this matchSportivo Trinidense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.40

Rubio NU

1.15

Sportivo Trinidense

1.40

Sportivo Trinidense creates 22% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 45 away

0.91

creates per match

1.36

1.43

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Rubio NU

0.91

Sportivo Trinidense

1.36

allows per match

Rubio NU

1.43

Sportivo Trinidense

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rubio NU+0.00on par

Sportivo Trinidense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rubio NU ↓

Sportivo Trinidense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Rubio NU or draw

57%

Rubio NU or Sportivo Trinidense

74%

Draw or Sportivo Trinidense

69%

Winning margin

Rubio NU wins by 2+

12%

Sportivo Trinidense wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Rubio NU 1+ goals

68%

Rubio NU 2+ goals

32%

Rubio NU 3+ goals

11%

Sportivo Trinidense 1+ goals

75%

Sportivo Trinidense 2+ goals

41%

Sportivo Trinidense 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Rubio NU (draw refunded)

42%

Sportivo Trinidense (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rubio NU at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.43 · 23 matches

Sportivo Trinidense away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.38 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rubio NU attack 0.91 + Sportivo Trinidense defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.15

Sportivo Trinidense attack 1.36 + Rubio NU defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Rubio NU scores more

31%

level

26%

Sportivo Trinidense scores more

43%

Sportivo Trinidense at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sportivo Trinidense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

T. Canteros

Rubio NU · G

7.7

Match Events

11'

Agustín da SilveiraGoal cancelled

45+2'

Gustavo Viera

46'

D. Villalba← A. Ruiz Diaz

46'

R. Baez Mendoza← T. Rayer

53'

Sergio Mendoza

60'

William Mendieta

61'

D. Mereles← L. Montiel

61'

O. Gimenez← F. Romero

68'

Fernando Martinez

69'

C. Villagra← P. Baez

69'

A. Leguizamon← J. J. Gimenez Delgado

70'

N. Camacho← C. Gonzalez

71'

N. Gauto← L. De la Cruz

73'

Pedro Zarza

81'

Pedro Alvarez

82'

R. Rojas← A. Cardozo Lucena

82'

C. Gimenez← W. Mendieta

84'

87'

90+5'

90+5'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RubioSportivo

Overview

45%Possession55%

7Total Shots16

0.63Expected Goals (xG)0.97

3Corners5

15Fouls17

Shots

7Total Shots16

3On Target7

2Off Target5

2Blocked4

3Inside Box8

4Outside Box8

Passing

45%Possession55%

258Total Passes324

176Accurate Passes243

68%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

6Saves3

Discipline

15Fouls17

4Yellow Cards5

1Red Cards0

0Offsides1