Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sportivo Trinidense vs Olimpia — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2019

Sportivo Trinidense
Sportivo Trinidense
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Olimpia
Olimpia
3/5/2026CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · Qualification Round 1Estadio Defensores del Chaco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Sportivo Trinidense31%
×Draw30%
Olimpia39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportivo Trinidense
0.97
Olimpia
1.13

Olimpia creates 16% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Sportivo Trinidense
0.75
Olimpia
1.00

allows per match

Sportivo Trinidense
1.25
Olimpia
1.20

finishing

Sportivo Trinidense+0.00on par
Olimpia+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Trinidense ↓

Olimpia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Sportivo Trinidense or draw
61%
Sportivo Trinidense or Olimpia
70%
Draw or Olimpia
69%

Winning margin

Sportivo Trinidense wins by 2+
11%
Olimpia wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Sportivo Trinidense 1+ goals
62%
Sportivo Trinidense 2+ goals
25%
Sportivo Trinidense 3+ goals
7%
Olimpia 1+ goals
68%
Olimpia 2+ goals
31%
Olimpia 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Trinidense (draw refunded)
44%
Olimpia (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Trinidense at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Olimpia away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Trinidense attack 0.75 + Olimpia defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.97

Olimpia attack 1.00 + Sportivo Trinidense defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sportivo Trinidense scores more
31%
level
30%
Olimpia scores more
39%

Olimpia at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Olimpia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sportivo Trinidense vs Olimpia

Olimpia beat Sportivo Trinidense 1-0 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on March 5, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Defensores del Chaco.