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Olimpia vs Sportivo Trinidense — Division Profesional - Apertura 2018

Olimpia
Olimpia
FT
4 – 2
HT: 3 – 1
Sportivo Trinidense
Sportivo Trinidense
2/16/2025Division Profesional - AperturaDivision Profesional - Apertura · Apertura - 5Estadio ueno Defensores del Chaco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Olimpia48%
×Draw24%
Sportivo Trinidense28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olimpia
1.67
Sportivo Trinidense
1.22

Olimpia creates 37% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 44 away

creates per match

Olimpia
1.99
Sportivo Trinidense
1.39

allows per match

Olimpia
1.05
Sportivo Trinidense
1.34

finishing

Olimpia+0.00on par
Sportivo Trinidense+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpia ↓

Sportivo Trinidense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Olimpia or draw
72%
Olimpia or Sportivo Trinidense
76%
Draw or Sportivo Trinidense
52%

Winning margin

Olimpia wins by 2+
25%
Sportivo Trinidense wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Olimpia 1+ goals
81%
Olimpia 2+ goals
50%
Olimpia 3+ goals
23%
Sportivo Trinidense 1+ goals
70%
Sportivo Trinidense 2+ goals
34%
Sportivo Trinidense 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Olimpia (draw refunded)
63%
Sportivo Trinidense (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpia at home — creates 1.99, concedes 1.05 · 96 matches

Sportivo Trinidense away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.34 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpia attack 1.99 + Sportivo Trinidense defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.67

Sportivo Trinidense attack 1.39 + Olimpia defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Olimpia scores more
48%
level
24%
Sportivo Trinidense scores more
28%

Olimpia at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Olimpia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Olimpia vs Sportivo Trinidense

Olimpia beat Sportivo Trinidense 4-2 in Division Profesional - Apertura on February 16, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio ueno Defensores del Chaco in Asunción.