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Sportivo Trinidense vs Olimpia — Division Profesional - Apertura 2018

Sportivo Trinidense
Sportivo Trinidense
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Olimpia
Olimpia
3/10/2024Division Profesional - AperturaDivision Profesional - Apertura · Apertura - 9Estadio Luís Alfonso Giagni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Sportivo Trinidense32%
×Draw27%
Olimpia41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportivo Trinidense
1.17
Olimpia
1.35

Olimpia creates 15% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 97 away

creates per match

Sportivo Trinidense
1.36
Olimpia
1.76

allows per match

Sportivo Trinidense
0.95
Olimpia
0.97

finishing

Sportivo Trinidense+0.00on par
Olimpia+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Trinidense ↓

Olimpia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Sportivo Trinidense or draw
59%
Sportivo Trinidense or Olimpia
73%
Draw or Olimpia
68%

Winning margin

Sportivo Trinidense wins by 2+
13%
Olimpia wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Sportivo Trinidense 1+ goals
69%
Sportivo Trinidense 2+ goals
33%
Sportivo Trinidense 3+ goals
11%
Olimpia 1+ goals
74%
Olimpia 2+ goals
39%
Olimpia 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Trinidense (draw refunded)
44%
Olimpia (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Trinidense at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.95 · 44 matches

Olimpia away — creates 1.76, concedes 0.97 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Trinidense attack 1.36 + Olimpia defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.17

Olimpia attack 1.76 + Sportivo Trinidense defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sportivo Trinidense scores more
32%
level
27%
Olimpia scores more
41%

Olimpia at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Olimpia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Profesional - Apertura: Sportivo Trinidense 1–1 Olimpia

Sportivo Trinidense and Olimpia drew 1-1 in Division Profesional - Apertura on March 10, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Luís Alfonso Giagni in Asunción.