Sportivo Trinidense vs Deportivo Recoleta — Division Profesional - Apertura 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 22+ matches
Sportivo Trinidense43%
Deportivo Recoleta32%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Sportivo Trinidense creates 20% more chances
Season form · 45 home / 22 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over51
- Under49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes55
- No45
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Sportivo Trinidense ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Sportivo Trinidense at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.96 · 45 matches
Deportivo Recoleta away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.59 · 22 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Sportivo Trinidense attack 1.36 + Deportivo Recoleta defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.48
Deportivo Recoleta attack 1.50 + Sportivo Trinidense defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.23
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 43%?"
Sportivo Trinidense at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 43% does not mean "Sportivo Trinidense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Sportivo Trinidense host Deportivo Recoleta on Monday, 23 March 2026 at 21:30. The match is part of the Division Profesional - Apertura 2018/2019 season.
Division Profesional - Apertura: Sportivo Trinidense 3–2 Deportivo Recoleta
Sportivo Trinidense beat Deportivo Recoleta 3-2 in Division Profesional - Apertura on March 23, 2026.
Goals: J. Espinola (20' o.g.), L. Gonzalez (32'), A. Wlk (37'), R. Ortiz (74'), B. Valdez (81' pen).
Deportivo Recoleta controlled possession (60%) and registered 12 shots to 7.
The match was played at Estadio Martin Torres in Asuncion.