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Sportivo Trinidense vs Deportivo Recoleta — League #252 2026

Sportivo Trinidense
Sportivo Trinidense
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Deportivo Recoleta
Deportivo Recoleta
A. B. Cano Esteche 53'
M. Centurion 29'
A. Silva 88' (pen), 73'
B. Ferreira 68'
9/14/2025League #252League #252 · Clausura - 12Estadio Martín Torres

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Sportivo Trinidense31%
×Draw29%
Deportivo Recoleta40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportivo Trinidense
1.02
Deportivo Recoleta
1.20

Deportivo Recoleta creates 18% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

Sportivo Trinidense
0.80
Deportivo Recoleta
1.00

allows per match

Sportivo Trinidense
1.40
Deportivo Recoleta
1.25

finishing

Sportivo Trinidense+0.00on par
Deportivo Recoleta+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Trinidense ↓

Deportivo Recoleta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Sportivo Trinidense or draw
60%
Sportivo Trinidense or Deportivo Recoleta
71%
Draw or Deportivo Recoleta
69%

Winning margin

Sportivo Trinidense wins by 2+
12%
Deportivo Recoleta wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Sportivo Trinidense 1+ goals
64%
Sportivo Trinidense 2+ goals
27%
Sportivo Trinidense 3+ goals
8%
Deportivo Recoleta 1+ goals
70%
Deportivo Recoleta 2+ goals
34%
Deportivo Recoleta 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Trinidense (draw refunded)
44%
Deportivo Recoleta (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Trinidense at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Deportivo Recoleta away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Trinidense attack 0.80 + Deportivo Recoleta defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.02

Deportivo Recoleta attack 1.00 + Sportivo Trinidense defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sportivo Trinidense scores more
31%
level
29%
Deportivo Recoleta scores more
40%

Deportivo Recoleta at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Deportivo Recoleta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
A. SilvaDeportivo RecoletaDeportivo Recoleta · M
8.9

Match Events

21'
Wilfrido Baez
29'
M. Centurion
46'
Juan Nunez
53'
A. B. Cano Esteche↳ T. Rayer
57'
F. A. Echeguren Zarza← I. Piris
57'
B. Ferreira← G. Guggiari
66'
Alejandro Silva
66'
F. Romero← N. Camacho
66'
A. Alvarez← A. B. Cano Esteche
68'
B. Ferreira↳ S. Vargas
69'
Tomas Rayer
72'
J. Roman← T. Rayer
72'
M. Lopez← J. Espinola
73'
R. Baez Mendoza← P. Zarza
73'
A. Silva
80'
Joel Román
82'
Sergio Mendoza
83'
M. Schupp← W. Baez
83'
M. Pereira← L. Cardozo
85'
Axel Cañete
88'
A. SilvaPenalty
89'
O. Gimenez← L. De la Cruz
90+3'
Lucas Romero

Possession

54%Sportivo

Shots

17Sportivo

Pass accuracy

50%Sportivo

Statistics

SportivoDeportivo
Overview
54%Possession46%
17Total Shots23
2.68Expected Goals (xG)3.43
7Corners4
14Fouls9
Shots
17Total Shots23
8On Target8
3Off Target11
6Blocked4
14Inside Box14
3Outside Box9
Passing
54%Possession46%
422Total Passes347
324Accurate Passes262
77%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
5Saves6
Discipline
14Fouls9
4Yellow Cards4
1Offsides2

League #252: Sportivo Trinidense 2–3 Deportivo Recoleta

Deportivo Recoleta beat Sportivo Trinidense 3-2 in League #252 on September 14, 2025.

Goals: M. Centurion (29'), A. B. Cano Esteche (53'), B. Ferreira (68'), A. Silva (73', 88' pen).

Sportivo Trinidense controlled possession (54%) and registered 17 shots to 23.

The match was played at Estadio Martín Torres in Asunción.