Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sportivo Peñarol vs Racing Cordoba — Copa Argentina 2018

Sportivo Peñarol
Sportivo Peñarol
FT
2 – 1
Racing Cordoba
Racing Cordoba
2/11/2018Copa ArgentinaCopa Argentina · Group B - 2nd Round QualifyingEstadio Ramón Pablo Rojas (San Juan, Provincia de San Juan)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Sportivo Peñarol72%
×Draw16%
Racing Cordoba12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportivo Peñarol
2.54
Racing Cordoba
0.94

Sportivo Peñarol creates 170% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 8 away

creates per match

Sportivo Peñarol
3.33
Racing Cordoba
0.88

allows per match

Sportivo Peñarol
1.00
Racing Cordoba
1.75

finishing

Sportivo Peñarol+0.00on par
Racing Cordoba+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Peñarol ↓

Racing Cordoba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Sportivo Peñarol or draw
88%
Sportivo Peñarol or Racing Cordoba
84%
Draw or Racing Cordoba
28%

Winning margin

Sportivo Peñarol wins by 2+
50%
Racing Cordoba wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Sportivo Peñarol 1+ goals
92%
Sportivo Peñarol 2+ goals
72%
Sportivo Peñarol 3+ goals
46%
Racing Cordoba 1+ goals
61%
Racing Cordoba 2+ goals
24%
Racing Cordoba 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Peñarol (draw refunded)
86%
Racing Cordoba (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Peñarol at home — creates 3.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Racing Cordoba away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Peñarol attack 3.33 + Racing Cordoba defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.54

Racing Cordoba attack 0.88 + Sportivo Peñarol defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Sportivo Peñarol scores more
72%
level
16%
Racing Cordoba scores more
12%

Sportivo Peñarol at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Sportivo Peñarol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa Argentina: Sportivo Peñarol 2–1 Racing Cordoba

Sportivo Peñarol beat Racing Cordoba 2-1 in Copa Argentina on February 11, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Ramón Pablo Rojas (San Juan, Provincia de San Juan).