Racing Cordoba 3–0 Sportivo Peñarol: Result & Stats

Racing Cordoba

FT

3 – 0

Sportivo Peñarol

2/18/2018

Copa Argentina · Group B - 2nd Round QualifyingEstadio Miguel Sancho (Ciudad de Córdoba, Provincia de Córdoba)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Racing Cordoba57%

×Draw24%

Sportivo Peñarol19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Racing CordobaExpected goals in this matchSportivo Peñarol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

0.90

Racing Cordoba

1.73

Sportivo Peñarol

0.90

Racing Cordoba creates 92% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

1.67

creates per match

0.80

1.00

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Racing Cordoba

1.67

Sportivo Peñarol

0.80

allows per match

Racing Cordoba

1.00

Sportivo Peñarol

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Racing Cordoba+0.00on par

Sportivo Peñarol+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Cordoba ↓

Sportivo Peñarol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Racing Cordoba or draw

81%

Racing Cordoba or Sportivo Peñarol

76%

Draw or Sportivo Peñarol

43%

Winning margin

Racing Cordoba wins by 2+

32%

Sportivo Peñarol wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Racing Cordoba 1+ goals

82%

Racing Cordoba 2+ goals

52%

Racing Cordoba 3+ goals

25%

Sportivo Peñarol 1+ goals

59%

Sportivo Peñarol 2+ goals

23%

Sportivo Peñarol 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Racing Cordoba (draw refunded)

75%

Sportivo Peñarol (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Cordoba at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Sportivo Peñarol away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Cordoba attack 1.67 + Sportivo Peñarol defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.73

Sportivo Peñarol attack 0.80 + Racing Cordoba defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Racing Cordoba scores more

57%

level

24%

Sportivo Peñarol scores more

19%

Racing Cordoba at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Racing Cordoba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff