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Sportivo Peñarol vs Olimpo Bahia Blanca — Torneo Federal A 2018

Sportivo Peñarol
Sportivo Peñarol
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Olimpo Bahia Blanca
Olimpo Bahia Blanca
7/31/2022Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Group A - 22Estadio Ramón Pablo Rojas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Sportivo Peñarol37%
×Draw29%
Olimpo Bahia Blanca34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportivo Peñarol
1.13
Olimpo Bahia Blanca
1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 61 home / 102 away

creates per match

Sportivo Peñarol
1.31
Olimpo Bahia Blanca
1.03

allows per match

Sportivo Peñarol
1.10
Olimpo Bahia Blanca
0.95

finishing

Sportivo Peñarol+0.00on par
Olimpo Bahia Blanca+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Peñarol ↓

Olimpo Bahia Blanca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Sportivo Peñarol or draw
66%
Sportivo Peñarol or Olimpo Bahia Blanca
71%
Draw or Olimpo Bahia Blanca
63%

Winning margin

Sportivo Peñarol wins by 2+
15%
Olimpo Bahia Blanca wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Sportivo Peñarol 1+ goals
68%
Sportivo Peñarol 2+ goals
31%
Sportivo Peñarol 3+ goals
11%
Olimpo Bahia Blanca 1+ goals
65%
Olimpo Bahia Blanca 2+ goals
29%
Olimpo Bahia Blanca 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Peñarol (draw refunded)
52%
Olimpo Bahia Blanca (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Peñarol at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.10 · 61 matches

Olimpo Bahia Blanca away — creates 1.03, concedes 0.95 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Peñarol attack 1.31 + Olimpo Bahia Blanca defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.13

Olimpo Bahia Blanca attack 1.03 + Sportivo Peñarol defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Sportivo Peñarol scores more
37%
level
29%
Olimpo Bahia Blanca scores more
34%

Sportivo Peñarol at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Sportivo Peñarol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torneo Federal A: Sportivo Peñarol 0–2 Olimpo Bahia Blanca

Olimpo Bahia Blanca beat Sportivo Peñarol 2-0 in Torneo Federal A on July 31, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Ramón Pablo Rojas in San Juan, Provincia de San Juan.