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Olimpo Bahia Blanca vs Sportivo Peñarol — Torneo Federal A 2018

Olimpo Bahia Blanca
Olimpo Bahia Blanca
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Sportivo Peñarol
Sportivo Peñarol
10/17/2021Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Group A - 28Estadio Roberto Natalio Carminatti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Olimpo Bahia Blanca58%
×Draw25%
Sportivo Peñarol17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olimpo Bahia Blanca
1.61
Sportivo Peñarol
0.73

Olimpo Bahia Blanca creates 121% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 62 away

creates per match

Olimpo Bahia Blanca
1.56
Sportivo Peñarol
0.87

allows per match

Olimpo Bahia Blanca
0.59
Sportivo Peñarol
1.66

finishing

Olimpo Bahia Blanca+0.00on par
Sportivo Peñarol+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpo Bahia Blanca ↓

Sportivo Peñarol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Olimpo Bahia Blanca or draw
83%
Olimpo Bahia Blanca or Sportivo Peñarol
75%
Draw or Sportivo Peñarol
42%

Winning margin

Olimpo Bahia Blanca wins by 2+
32%
Sportivo Peñarol wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Olimpo Bahia Blanca 1+ goals
80%
Olimpo Bahia Blanca 2+ goals
48%
Olimpo Bahia Blanca 3+ goals
22%
Sportivo Peñarol 1+ goals
52%
Sportivo Peñarol 2+ goals
17%
Sportivo Peñarol 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Olimpo Bahia Blanca (draw refunded)
78%
Sportivo Peñarol (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpo Bahia Blanca at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.59 · 108 matches

Sportivo Peñarol away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.66 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpo Bahia Blanca attack 1.56 + Sportivo Peñarol defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.61

Sportivo Peñarol attack 0.87 + Olimpo Bahia Blanca defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Olimpo Bahia Blanca scores more
58%
level
25%
Sportivo Peñarol scores more
17%

Olimpo Bahia Blanca at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Olimpo Bahia Blanca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torneo Federal A: Olimpo Bahia Blanca 0–2 Sportivo Peñarol

Sportivo Peñarol beat Olimpo Bahia Blanca 2-0 in Torneo Federal A on October 17, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Roberto Natalio Carminatti in Bahía Blanca, Provincia de Buenos Aires.