Sportivo Peñarol 1–0 Independiente De Chivilcoy

Sportivo Peñarol

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Independiente De Chivilcoy

4/11/2021

Torneo Federal A · Group A - 1Estadio Ramón Pablo Rojas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Sportivo Peñarol42%

×Draw30%

Independiente De Chivilcoy28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sportivo PeñarolExpected goals in this matchIndependiente De Chivilcoy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

0.89

Sportivo Peñarol

1.16

Independiente De Chivilcoy

0.89

Sportivo Peñarol creates 30% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 87 away

1.31

creates per match

0.67

1.10

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

Sportivo Peñarol

1.31

Independiente De Chivilcoy

0.67

allows per match

Sportivo Peñarol

1.10

Independiente De Chivilcoy

1.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sportivo Peñarol+0.00on par

Independiente De Chivilcoy+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Peñarol ↓

Independiente De Chivilcoy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Sportivo Peñarol or draw

72%

Sportivo Peñarol or Independiente De Chivilcoy

70%

Draw or Independiente De Chivilcoy

58%

Winning margin

Sportivo Peñarol wins by 2+

18%

Independiente De Chivilcoy wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Sportivo Peñarol 1+ goals

69%

Sportivo Peñarol 2+ goals

32%

Sportivo Peñarol 3+ goals

11%

Independiente De Chivilcoy 1+ goals

59%

Independiente De Chivilcoy 2+ goals

22%

Independiente De Chivilcoy 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Peñarol (draw refunded)

60%

Independiente De Chivilcoy (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Peñarol at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.10 · 61 matches

Independiente De Chivilcoy away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.01 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Peñarol attack 1.31 + Independiente De Chivilcoy defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.16

Independiente De Chivilcoy attack 0.67 + Sportivo Peñarol defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sportivo Peñarol scores more

42%

level

30%

Independiente De Chivilcoy scores more

28%

Sportivo Peñarol at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sportivo Peñarol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff