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Independiente De Chivilcoy vs Sportivo Peñarol — Torneo Federal A 2018

Independiente De Chivilcoy
Independiente De Chivilcoy
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sportivo Peñarol
Sportivo Peñarol
8/8/2021Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Group A - 16Estadio Raúl Orlando Lungarzo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Independiente De Chivilcoy54%
×Draw26%
Sportivo Peñarol20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente De Chivilcoy
1.50
Sportivo Peñarol
0.79

Independiente De Chivilcoy creates 90% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 62 away

creates per match

Independiente De Chivilcoy
1.33
Sportivo Peñarol
0.87

allows per match

Independiente De Chivilcoy
0.71
Sportivo Peñarol
1.66

finishing

Independiente De Chivilcoy+0.00on par
Sportivo Peñarol+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente De Chivilcoy ↓

Sportivo Peñarol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Independiente De Chivilcoy or draw
80%
Independiente De Chivilcoy or Sportivo Peñarol
74%
Draw or Sportivo Peñarol
46%

Winning margin

Independiente De Chivilcoy wins by 2+
28%
Sportivo Peñarol wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Independiente De Chivilcoy 1+ goals
78%
Independiente De Chivilcoy 2+ goals
44%
Independiente De Chivilcoy 3+ goals
19%
Sportivo Peñarol 1+ goals
55%
Sportivo Peñarol 2+ goals
19%
Sportivo Peñarol 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Independiente De Chivilcoy (draw refunded)
73%
Sportivo Peñarol (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente De Chivilcoy at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.71 · 86 matches

Sportivo Peñarol away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.66 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente De Chivilcoy attack 1.33 + Sportivo Peñarol defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.50

Sportivo Peñarol attack 0.87 + Independiente De Chivilcoy defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Independiente De Chivilcoy scores more
54%
level
26%
Sportivo Peñarol scores more
20%

Independiente De Chivilcoy at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Independiente De Chivilcoy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torneo Federal A: Independiente De Chivilcoy 0–1 Sportivo Peñarol

Sportivo Peñarol beat Independiente De Chivilcoy 1-0 in Torneo Federal A on August 8, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Raúl Orlando Lungarzo in Chivilcoy, Provincia de Buenos Aires.