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Sportivo Luqueno vs Rubio NU — Division Intermedia 2026

Sportivo Luqueno
Sportivo Luqueno
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Rubio NU
Rubio NU
J. Alvarenga 69'
J. Nunez 60'
J. Gauto 8'
7/17/2022Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 17Estadio Feliciano Cáceres

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Sportivo Luqueno46%
×Draw27%
Rubio NU27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportivo Luqueno
1.40
Rubio NU
1.01

Sportivo Luqueno creates 39% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 106 away

creates per match

Sportivo Luqueno
1.60
Rubio NU
1.09

allows per match

Sportivo Luqueno
0.93
Rubio NU
1.20

finishing

Sportivo Luqueno+0.00on par
Rubio NU+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Luqueno ↓

Rubio NU →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Sportivo Luqueno or draw
73%
Sportivo Luqueno or Rubio NU
73%
Draw or Rubio NU
54%

Winning margin

Sportivo Luqueno wins by 2+
22%
Rubio NU wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sportivo Luqueno 1+ goals
75%
Sportivo Luqueno 2+ goals
41%
Sportivo Luqueno 3+ goals
17%
Rubio NU 1+ goals
64%
Rubio NU 2+ goals
27%
Rubio NU 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Luqueno (draw refunded)
63%
Rubio NU (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Luqueno at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

Rubio NU away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.20 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Luqueno attack 1.60 + Rubio NU defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.40

Rubio NU attack 1.09 + Sportivo Luqueno defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sportivo Luqueno scores more
46%
level
27%
Rubio NU scores more
27%

Sportivo Luqueno at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sportivo Luqueno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
J. Gauto
60'
J. Nunez
69'
J. Alvarenga
90+1'
R. Britez

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Intermedia: Sportivo Luqueno 2–1 Rubio NU

Sportivo Luqueno beat Rubio NU 2-1 in Division Intermedia on July 17, 2022.

Goals: J. Gauto (8'), J. Nunez (60'), J. Alvarenga (69').

The match was played at Estadio Feliciano Cáceres in Luque.