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Rubio NU vs Sportivo Luqueno — Division Intermedia 2026

Rubio NU
Rubio NU
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sportivo Luqueno
Sportivo Luqueno
J. Nunez 17'
4/8/2022Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 2Estadio Don Eduardo Acosta Caballero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Rubio NU33%
×Draw29%
Sportivo Luqueno38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rubio NU
1.08
Sportivo Luqueno
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 105 home / 15 away

creates per match

Rubio NU
1.37
Sportivo Luqueno
1.20

allows per match

Rubio NU
1.13
Sportivo Luqueno
0.80

finishing

Rubio NU+0.00on par
Sportivo Luqueno+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rubio NU ↓

Sportivo Luqueno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Rubio NU or draw
62%
Rubio NU or Sportivo Luqueno
71%
Draw or Sportivo Luqueno
67%

Winning margin

Rubio NU wins by 2+
13%
Sportivo Luqueno wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Rubio NU 1+ goals
66%
Rubio NU 2+ goals
29%
Rubio NU 3+ goals
10%
Sportivo Luqueno 1+ goals
69%
Sportivo Luqueno 2+ goals
33%
Sportivo Luqueno 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Rubio NU (draw refunded)
47%
Sportivo Luqueno (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rubio NU at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.13 · 105 matches

Sportivo Luqueno away — creates 1.20, concedes 0.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rubio NU attack 1.37 + Sportivo Luqueno defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.08

Sportivo Luqueno attack 1.20 + Rubio NU defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Rubio NU scores more
33%
level
29%
Sportivo Luqueno scores more
38%

Sportivo Luqueno at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sportivo Luqueno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'
J. Nunez

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Intermedia: Rubio NU 0–1 Sportivo Luqueno

Sportivo Luqueno beat Rubio NU 1-0 in Division Intermedia on April 8, 2022.

Goals: J. Nunez (17').

The match was played at Estadio Don Eduardo Acosta Caballero in Asunción.