Sportivo Luqueno 2–3 RB Bragantino: Result & Stats

Sportivo Luqueno

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

RB Bragantino

J. Leguizamón 37'

M. Ferreira 3'

Helinho 80', 15'

Lincoln 74'

5/17/2024

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 5Estadio ueno Defensores del Chaco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Sportivo Luqueno25%

×Draw25%

RB Bragantino50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sportivo LuquenoExpected goals in this matchRB Bragantino

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.61

Sportivo Luqueno

1.06

RB Bragantino

1.61

RB Bragantino creates 52% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 19 away

1.00

creates per match

1.79

1.44

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Sportivo Luqueno

1.00

RB Bragantino

1.79

allows per match

Sportivo Luqueno

1.44

RB Bragantino

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sportivo Luqueno+0.00on par

RB Bragantino+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Luqueno ↓

RB Bragantino →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Sportivo Luqueno or draw

50%

Sportivo Luqueno or RB Bragantino

75%

Draw or RB Bragantino

75%

Winning margin

Sportivo Luqueno wins by 2+

9%

RB Bragantino wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Sportivo Luqueno 1+ goals

65%

Sportivo Luqueno 2+ goals

29%

Sportivo Luqueno 3+ goals

9%

RB Bragantino 1+ goals

80%

RB Bragantino 2+ goals

48%

RB Bragantino 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Luqueno (draw refunded)

33%

RB Bragantino (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Luqueno at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

RB Bragantino away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Luqueno attack 1.00 + RB Bragantino defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.06

RB Bragantino attack 1.79 + Sportivo Luqueno defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Sportivo Luqueno scores more

25%

level

25%

RB Bragantino scores more

50%

RB Bragantino at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "RB Bragantino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

Helinho

RB Bragantino · F

8.7

Match Events

3'

M. Ferreira

15'

Helinho↳ Eric Ramires

19'

Juninho Capixaba

37'

J. Leguizamón↳ S. Otálvaro

44'

Lincoln← Gustavinho

44'

Lucas Evangelista← Eric Ramires

45'

Lucas Cunha← Juninho Capixaba

50'

Lincoln

51'

Fernando Benítez

69'

I. Laquintana← Nathan Mendes

70'

A. Villalba← S. Fretes

70'

A. Álvarez← M. Ferreira

70'

R. Ferreira← S. Otálvaro

74'

Talisson← Matheus Fernandes

74'

Lincoln

77'

N. Maná← D. Alegre

79'

L. Comas← Diego Fernández

80'

Helinho↳ Talisson

90+3'

Darío Ríos

90+3'

Eduardo Santos

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SportivoRB

Overview

38%Possession62%

12Total Shots16

6Corners10

17Fouls5

Shots

12Total Shots16

6On Target6

4Off Target7

2Blocked3

11Inside Box9

1Outside Box7

Passing

38%Possession62%

251Total Passes397

162Accurate Passes305

65%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

17Fouls5

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1