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RB Bragantino vs Sportivo Luqueno — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

RB Bragantino
RB Bragantino
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Sportivo Luqueno
Sportivo Luqueno
Gustavinho 47'
T. Borbas 28'
M. Ferreira 76'
4/25/2024CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 3Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

RB Bragantino60%
×Draw23%
Sportivo Luqueno17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RB Bragantino
1.78
Sportivo Luqueno
0.82

RB Bragantino creates 117% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 9 away

creates per match

RB Bragantino
2.00
Sportivo Luqueno
0.89

allows per match

RB Bragantino
0.76
Sportivo Luqueno
1.56

finishing

RB Bragantino+0.00on par
Sportivo Luqueno+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 52Over: 4852%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No: 54Yes: 4654%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RB Bragantino ↓

Sportivo Luqueno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

RB Bragantino or draw
83%
RB Bragantino or Sportivo Luqueno
77%
Draw or Sportivo Luqueno
40%

Winning margin

RB Bragantino wins by 2+
34%
Sportivo Luqueno wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

RB Bragantino 1+ goals
83%
RB Bragantino 2+ goals
53%
RB Bragantino 3+ goals
26%
Sportivo Luqueno 1+ goals
56%
Sportivo Luqueno 2+ goals
20%
Sportivo Luqueno 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

RB Bragantino (draw refunded)
78%
Sportivo Luqueno (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RB Bragantino at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

Sportivo Luqueno away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RB Bragantino attack 2.00 + Sportivo Luqueno defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.78

Sportivo Luqueno attack 0.89 + RB Bragantino defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

RB Bragantino scores more
60%
level
23%
Sportivo Luqueno scores more
17%

RB Bragantino at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "RB Bragantino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28
VitinhoRB BragantinoRB Bragantino · F
8.0

Match Events

11'
Nicolás ManáGoal cancelled
16'
Thiago Borbas
17'
Jadsom← Raul
28'
T. Borbas↳ Vitinho
46'
Gustavinho← J. Hurtado
47'
Gustavinho
56'
Bruninho
57'
Nicolás Maná
64'
Diego Fernández← Rodrigo Rojas
64'
S. Fretes← L. Comas
64'
M. Ferreira← D. Acosta
66'
Eduardo Sasha← Bruninho
71'
D. Alegre← N. Maná
74'
Lincoln← Eric Ramires
74'
Nathan Mendes← T. Borbas
76'
M. Ferreira↳ D. Vera
78'
Lincoln
90+4'
Rodi Ferreira

Possession

RB: 57Sportivo: 4357%RB

Shots

RB: 11Sportivo: 811RB

Pass accuracy

RB: 73Sportivo: 6055%RB

Statistics

RBSportivo
Overview
57%Possession43%
11Total Shots8
6Corners1
13Fouls12
Shots
11Total Shots8
5On Target2
4Off Target4
2Blocked2
8Inside Box5
3Outside Box3
Passing
57%Possession43%
377Total Passes283
277Accurate Passes170
73%Pass Accuracy60%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
13Fouls12
3Yellow Cards2
2Offsides6

Match Recap: RB Bragantino vs Sportivo Luqueno

RB Bragantino beat Sportivo Luqueno 2-1 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on April 25, 2024.

Goals: T. Borbas (28'), Gustavinho (47'), M. Ferreira (76').

RB Bragantino controlled possession (57%) and registered 11 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid in Bragança Paulista, São Paulo.