Sportivo Luqueno 0–2 Racing Club: Result & Stats

Sportivo Luqueno

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Racing Club

R. Martínez 45'

A. Martínez 41'

4/5/2024

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 1Estadio ueno Defensores del Chaco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Sportivo Luqueno28%

×Draw26%

Racing Club46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sportivo LuquenoExpected goals in this matchRacing Club

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

1.45

Sportivo Luqueno

1.07

Racing Club

1.45

Racing Club creates 36% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 13 away

1.00

creates per match

1.46

1.44

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Sportivo Luqueno

1.00

Racing Club

1.46

allows per match

Sportivo Luqueno

1.44

Racing Club

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sportivo Luqueno+0.00on par

Racing Club+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Luqueno ↓

Racing Club →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Sportivo Luqueno or draw

54%

Sportivo Luqueno or Racing Club

74%

Draw or Racing Club

72%

Winning margin

Sportivo Luqueno wins by 2+

11%

Racing Club wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Sportivo Luqueno 1+ goals

66%

Sportivo Luqueno 2+ goals

29%

Sportivo Luqueno 3+ goals

9%

Racing Club 1+ goals

77%

Racing Club 2+ goals

42%

Racing Club 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Luqueno (draw refunded)

38%

Racing Club (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Luqueno at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

Racing Club away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Luqueno attack 1.00 + Racing Club defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.07

Racing Club attack 1.46 + Sportivo Luqueno defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sportivo Luqueno scores more

28%

level

26%

Racing Club scores more

46%

Racing Club at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Racing Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

A. Martínez

Racing Club · F

8.0

Match Events

28'

I. Galván← G. Martirena

41'

A. Martínez↳ E. Almendra

45'

R. Martínez↳ A. Martínez

46'

D. Vera← M. Suárez

46'

B. Zuculini← E. Almendra

46'

T. Rubio← F. Mura

50'

Rodrigo Rojas

57'

Roger Martínez

61'

D. Acosta← M. Ferreira

71'

D. Alegre← A. Álvarez

71'

S. Fretes← N. Maná

72'

Germán Conti

74'

J. Quintero← R. Martínez

79'

M. Di Cesare← G. Conti

81'

Darío Ríos

81'

S. Ruiz Díaz← L. Comas

85'

Santiago Sosa

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SportivoRacing

Overview

41%Possession59%

10Total Shots9

3Corners1

16Fouls12

Shots

10Total Shots9

1On Target4

9Off Target5

0Blocked0

6Inside Box6

4Outside Box3

Passing

41%Possession59%

327Total Passes490

243Accurate Passes408

74%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

16Fouls12

2Yellow Cards3

5Offsides3

Match Recap: Sportivo Luqueno vs Racing Club

Racing Club beat Sportivo Luqueno 2-0 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on April 5, 2024.

Goals: A. Martínez (41'), R. Martínez (45').

Racing Club controlled possession (59%) and registered 9 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio ueno Defensores del Chaco in Asunción.

Sportivo Luqueno vs Racing Club — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Sportivo Luqueno vs Racing Club