Racing Club 3–0 Sportivo Luqueno: Result & Stats

Racing Club

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Sportivo Luqueno

R. Martínez 81' (pen)

M. Salas 35'

A. Martínez 10'

5/29/2024

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 6Estadio Ciudad de Lanús - Néstor Díaz Pérez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Racing Club66%

×Draw20%

Sportivo Luqueno14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Racing ClubExpected goals in this matchSportivo Luqueno

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.05

0.83

Racing Club

2.05

Sportivo Luqueno

0.83

Racing Club creates 147% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 9 away

2.54

creates per match

0.89

0.77

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Racing Club

2.54

Sportivo Luqueno

0.89

allows per match

Racing Club

0.77

Sportivo Luqueno

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Racing Club+0.00on par

Sportivo Luqueno+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Club ↓

Sportivo Luqueno →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Racing Club or draw

86%

Racing Club or Sportivo Luqueno

80%

Draw or Sportivo Luqueno

34%

Winning margin

Racing Club wins by 2+

41%

Sportivo Luqueno wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Racing Club 1+ goals

87%

Racing Club 2+ goals

61%

Racing Club 3+ goals

33%

Sportivo Luqueno 1+ goals

56%

Sportivo Luqueno 2+ goals

20%

Sportivo Luqueno 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Racing Club (draw refunded)

82%

Sportivo Luqueno (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Club at home — creates 2.54, concedes 0.77 · 13 matches

Sportivo Luqueno away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Club attack 2.54 + Sportivo Luqueno defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 2.05

Sportivo Luqueno attack 0.89 + Racing Club defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Racing Club scores more

66%

level

20%

Sportivo Luqueno scores more

14%

Racing Club at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Racing Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

G. Martirena

Racing Club · M

7.9

Match Events

10'

A. Martínez↳ B. Rodríguez

18'

35'

38'

45'

46'

49'

57'

A. Urzi← J. Carbonero

65'

Diego Vera

65'

S. Fretes← L. Comas

66'

R. Martínez← A. Martínez

66'

Diego Fernández← Rodrigo Rojas

66'

M. Ferreira← J. Benítez

67'

B. Zuculini← J. Nardoni

67'

R. Alborno← D. Vera

78'

S. Solari← B. Rodríguez

78'

J. Quintero← M. Salas

81'

R. MartínezPenalty

82'

D. Acosta← N. Maná

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RacingSportivo

Overview

52%Possession48%

19Total Shots4

5Corners3

11Fouls13

Shots

19Total Shots4

8On Target1

6Off Target3

5Blocked0

13Inside Box1

6Outside Box3

Passing

52%Possession48%

439Total Passes408

361Accurate Passes317

82%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

11Fouls13

3Yellow Cards3