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Sportivo Luqueno vs Nacional Asuncion — Division Profesional - Apertura 2018

Sportivo Luqueno
Sportivo Luqueno
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Nacional Asuncion
Nacional Asuncion
3/10/2025Division Profesional - AperturaDivision Profesional - Apertura · Apertura - 8Estadio Luis Alberto Salinas Tanasio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Sportivo Luqueno36%
×Draw28%
Nacional Asuncion37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportivo Luqueno
1.19
Nacional Asuncion
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 86 home / 98 away

creates per match

Sportivo Luqueno
1.13
Nacional Asuncion
1.13

allows per match

Sportivo Luqueno
1.30
Nacional Asuncion
1.26

finishing

Sportivo Luqueno+0.00on par
Nacional Asuncion+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Luqueno ↓

Nacional Asuncion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Sportivo Luqueno or draw
63%
Sportivo Luqueno or Nacional Asuncion
72%
Draw or Nacional Asuncion
64%

Winning margin

Sportivo Luqueno wins by 2+
15%
Nacional Asuncion wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Sportivo Luqueno 1+ goals
70%
Sportivo Luqueno 2+ goals
33%
Sportivo Luqueno 3+ goals
12%
Nacional Asuncion 1+ goals
70%
Nacional Asuncion 2+ goals
34%
Nacional Asuncion 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Luqueno (draw refunded)
49%
Nacional Asuncion (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Luqueno at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.30 · 86 matches

Nacional Asuncion away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.26 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Luqueno attack 1.13 + Nacional Asuncion defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.19

Nacional Asuncion attack 1.13 + Sportivo Luqueno defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Sportivo Luqueno scores more
36%
level
28%
Nacional Asuncion scores more
37%

Nacional Asuncion at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Nacional Asuncion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Profesional - Apertura: Sportivo Luqueno 2–1 Nacional Asuncion

Sportivo Luqueno beat Nacional Asuncion 2-1 in Division Profesional - Apertura on March 10, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Luis Alberto Salinas Tanasio in Itauguá.