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Nacional Asuncion vs Sportivo Luqueno — Division Profesional - Apertura 2018

Nacional Asuncion
Nacional Asuncion
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sportivo Luqueno
Sportivo Luqueno
5/4/2024Division Profesional - AperturaDivision Profesional - Apertura · Apertura - 16Estadio Arsenio Erico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Nacional Asuncion43%
×Draw28%
Sportivo Luqueno29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nacional Asuncion
1.33
Sportivo Luqueno
1.04

Nacional Asuncion creates 28% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 86 away

creates per match

Nacional Asuncion
1.22
Sportivo Luqueno
1.00

allows per match

Nacional Asuncion
1.08
Sportivo Luqueno
1.44

finishing

Nacional Asuncion+0.00on par
Sportivo Luqueno+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nacional Asuncion ↓

Sportivo Luqueno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Nacional Asuncion or draw
71%
Nacional Asuncion or Sportivo Luqueno
72%
Draw or Sportivo Luqueno
57%

Winning margin

Nacional Asuncion wins by 2+
20%
Sportivo Luqueno wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Nacional Asuncion 1+ goals
74%
Nacional Asuncion 2+ goals
38%
Nacional Asuncion 3+ goals
15%
Sportivo Luqueno 1+ goals
65%
Sportivo Luqueno 2+ goals
28%
Sportivo Luqueno 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Nacional Asuncion (draw refunded)
60%
Sportivo Luqueno (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nacional Asuncion at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.08 · 97 matches

Sportivo Luqueno away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.44 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nacional Asuncion attack 1.22 + Sportivo Luqueno defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.33

Sportivo Luqueno attack 1.00 + Nacional Asuncion defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Nacional Asuncion scores more
43%
level
28%
Sportivo Luqueno scores more
29%

Nacional Asuncion at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Nacional Asuncion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nacional Asuncion vs Sportivo Luqueno

Sportivo Luqueno beat Nacional Asuncion 1-0 in Division Profesional - Apertura on May 4, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Arsenio Erico in Asunción.