Sportivo Luqueno 1–2 Gremio: Result & Stats

Sportivo Luqueno

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Gremio

F. Santander 29'

M. Braithwaite 71'

M. Arezo 17' (pen)

4/3/2025

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 1Estadio Feliciano Caceres

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Sportivo Luqueno32%

×Draw32%

Gremio36%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sportivo LuquenoExpected goals in this matchGremio

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.93

1.00

Sportivo Luqueno

0.93

Gremio

1.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

1.00

creates per match

1.00

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Sportivo Luqueno

1.00

Gremio

1.00

allows per match

Sportivo Luqueno

1.00

Gremio

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sportivo Luqueno+0.00on par

Gremio+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Luqueno ↓

Gremio →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–115%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Sportivo Luqueno or draw

64%

Sportivo Luqueno or Gremio

68%

Draw or Gremio

68%

Winning margin

Sportivo Luqueno wins by 2+

12%

Gremio wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Sportivo Luqueno 1+ goals

61%

Sportivo Luqueno 2+ goals

24%

Sportivo Luqueno 3+ goals

7%

Gremio 1+ goals

63%

Gremio 2+ goals

26%

Gremio 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Luqueno (draw refunded)

47%

Gremio (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Luqueno at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Gremio away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Luqueno attack 1.00 + Gremio defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.93

Gremio attack 1.00 + Sportivo Luqueno defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Sportivo Luqueno scores more

32%

level

32%

Gremio scores more

36%

Gremio at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Gremio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

F. Cristaldo

Gremio · M

7.9

Match Events

15'

Franco CristaldoPenalty confirmed

17'

M. ArezoPenalty

24'

Lucas Esteves

28'

Darío Ríos

29'

F. Santander↳ E. Vera

50'

Elvio Vera

62'

W. Gonzalez← F. Santander

62'

W. Rodriguez← R. D. Rios

63'

C. Olivera← C. Pavon

63'

Edenilson← Dodi

63'

M. Braithwaite← M. Arezo

70'

W. Ayala← J. Baez

70'

L. Comas← M. Perez

71'

M. Braithwaite↳ C. Olivera

76'

Iván Torres

76'

Camilo Reijers← F. Cristaldo

82'

A. Aravena← F. Amuzu

84'

João Pedro

88'

G. Hauche← E. Vera

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SportivoGremio

Overview

36%Possession64%

8Total Shots10

1Corners5

13Fouls17

Shots

8Total Shots10

3On Target5

4Off Target2

1Blocked3

5Inside Box8

3Outside Box2

Passing

36%Possession64%

248Total Passes436

148Accurate Passes331

60%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls17

3Yellow Cards2

3Offsides2