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Gremio vs Sportivo Luqueno — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2025

Gremio
Gremio
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sportivo Luqueno
Sportivo Luqueno
R. Freitas dos Santos 75'
5/29/2025CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 6Arena do Grêmio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Gremio60%
×Draw25%
Sportivo Luqueno15%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gremio
1.55
Sportivo Luqueno
0.62

Gremio creates 150% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

creates per match

Gremio
1.43
Sportivo Luqueno
0.67

allows per match

Gremio
0.57
Sportivo Luqueno
1.67

finishing

Gremio+0.00on par
Sportivo Luqueno+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gremio ↓

Sportivo Luqueno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Gremio or draw
85%
Gremio or Sportivo Luqueno
75%
Draw or Sportivo Luqueno
40%

Winning margin

Gremio wins by 2+
32%
Sportivo Luqueno wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Gremio 1+ goals
79%
Gremio 2+ goals
46%
Gremio 3+ goals
20%
Sportivo Luqueno 1+ goals
46%
Sportivo Luqueno 2+ goals
13%
Sportivo Luqueno 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Gremio (draw refunded)
80%
Sportivo Luqueno (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gremio at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

Sportivo Luqueno away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gremio attack 1.43 + Sportivo Luqueno defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.55

Sportivo Luqueno attack 0.67 + Gremio defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Gremio scores more
60%
level
25%
Sportivo Luqueno scores more
15%

Gremio at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Gremio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
F. MongelosSportivo LuquenoSportivo Luqueno · G
9.0

Match Events

12'
Lucas EstevesPenalty confirmed
38'
Elvio Vera
41'
Nathan
46'
Andre Henrique← Viery
63'
C. Olivera← Nathan
63'
F. Cristaldo← Camilo Reijers
63'
R. Freitas dos Santos← A. Aravena
69'
L. Comas← K. Pereira
75'
R. Freitas dos Santos↳ C. Pavon
76'
Jardiel← M. Arezo
79'
S. Maldonado← A. Benitez
83'
I. Torres← R. Alborno
85'
Fernando Benítez

Possession

71%Gremio

Shots

29Gremio

Pass accuracy

57%Gremio

Statistics

GremioSportivo
Overview
71%Possession29%
29Total Shots3
13Corners2
12Fouls12
Shots
29Total Shots3
11On Target1
7Off Target2
11Blocked0
25Inside Box0
4Outside Box3
Passing
71%Possession29%
524Total Passes216
462Accurate Passes144
88%Pass Accuracy67%
Goalkeeping
1Saves9
Discipline
12Fouls12
1Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards2
2Offsides1

Match Recap: Gremio vs Sportivo Luqueno

Gremio beat Sportivo Luqueno 1-0 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on May 29, 2025.

Goals: R. Freitas dos Santos (75').

Gremio controlled possession (71%) and registered 29 shots to 3.

The match was played at Arena do Grêmio in Porto Alegre.