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Sportivo Luqueno vs General Caballero — Division Profesional - Apertura 2018

Sportivo Luqueno
Sportivo Luqueno
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
General Caballero
General Caballero
2/22/2024Division Profesional - AperturaDivision Profesional - Apertura · Apertura - 7Estadio Feliciano Cáceres

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Sportivo Luqueno39%
×Draw28%
General Caballero33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportivo Luqueno
1.21
General Caballero
1.09

Sportivo Luqueno creates 11% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 44 away

creates per match

Sportivo Luqueno
1.13
General Caballero
0.89

allows per match

Sportivo Luqueno
1.30
General Caballero
1.30

finishing

Sportivo Luqueno+0.00on par
General Caballero+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Luqueno ↓

General Caballero →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Sportivo Luqueno or draw
67%
Sportivo Luqueno or General Caballero
72%
Draw or General Caballero
61%

Winning margin

Sportivo Luqueno wins by 2+
17%
General Caballero wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Sportivo Luqueno 1+ goals
70%
Sportivo Luqueno 2+ goals
34%
Sportivo Luqueno 3+ goals
12%
General Caballero 1+ goals
66%
General Caballero 2+ goals
30%
General Caballero 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Luqueno (draw refunded)
54%
General Caballero (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Luqueno at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.30 · 86 matches

General Caballero away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.30 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Luqueno attack 1.13 + General Caballero defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.21

General Caballero attack 0.89 + Sportivo Luqueno defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sportivo Luqueno scores more
39%
level
28%
General Caballero scores more
33%

Sportivo Luqueno at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sportivo Luqueno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Profesional - Apertura: Sportivo Luqueno 1–1 General Caballero

Sportivo Luqueno and General Caballero drew 1-1 in Division Profesional - Apertura on February 22, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Feliciano Cáceres in Luque.