General Caballero 3–2 Sportivo Luqueno

General Caballero

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Sportivo Luqueno

4/18/2023

Division Profesional - Apertura · Apertura - 13Estadio Leandro Ovelar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

General Caballero37%

×Draw27%

Sportivo Luqueno36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

General CaballeroExpected goals in this matchSportivo Luqueno

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.24

General Caballero

1.25

Sportivo Luqueno

1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 44 home / 86 away

1.05

creates per match

1.00

1.48

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

General Caballero

1.05

Sportivo Luqueno

1.00

allows per match

General Caballero

1.48

Sportivo Luqueno

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

General Caballero+0.00on par

Sportivo Luqueno+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

General Caballero ↓

Sportivo Luqueno →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

General Caballero or draw

64%

General Caballero or Sportivo Luqueno

73%

Draw or Sportivo Luqueno

63%

Winning margin

General Caballero wins by 2+

16%

Sportivo Luqueno wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

General Caballero 1+ goals

71%

General Caballero 2+ goals

36%

General Caballero 3+ goals

13%

Sportivo Luqueno 1+ goals

71%

Sportivo Luqueno 2+ goals

35%

Sportivo Luqueno 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

General Caballero (draw refunded)

50%

Sportivo Luqueno (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

General Caballero at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.48 · 44 matches

Sportivo Luqueno away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.44 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

General Caballero attack 1.05 + Sportivo Luqueno defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.25

Sportivo Luqueno attack 1.00 + General Caballero defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

General Caballero scores more

37%

level

27%

Sportivo Luqueno scores more

36%

General Caballero at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "General Caballero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff